Ukranian war impact: Curtailed harvests and scarcer fertilizer all but promise hunger and hardship for tens of millions.

Russia’s Invasion Unleashes ‘Perfect Storm’ in Global Agriculture Curtailed harvests and scarcer fertilizer all but promise hunger and hardship for tens of millions. Christina Lu Foreign Policy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to spark a global food crisis, as simultaneous disruptions to harvests and global fertilizer production are driving up food prices and sending economic shock waves throughout the world. 

After a month of war, economists and aid agencies say the world is facing merging crises that could rapidly spiral into a global food emergency. The conflict has already slashed Russian and Ukrainian exports of crucial commodities such as wheat, sunflower oil, and corn, a disturbance that has rippled across import-reliant countries in the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, the ongoing energy crunch has drastically increased fertilizer prices and transportation costs, squeezing the key inputs for global agricultural production. 

These disruptions have converged in a “perfect storm,” said Ertharin Cousin, a distinguished fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former executive director of the World Food Program. “That could result in a cataclysmic spike in food prices.”

Together, Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 30 percent of global wheat exports, while Russia is the world’s top fertilizer exporter. Both fertilizer and food prices have already climbed to record levels as the war impedes shipments and Western sanctions hit Russia. In the early weeks of the conflict, Kyiv also banned exports of wheat and other key food staples, while Moscow urged its fertilizer producers to temporarily suspend exports.

In the coming months, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that food prices could surge by as much as 20 percent, a significant spike that could exacerbate global food insecurity. Nearly 283 million people in 81 countries currently face acute food insecurity or are at high risk, according to the World Food Program, with 45 million on the brink of famine. 

Russia’s invasion could be a “tipping point” into a world hunger crisis, Cousin said: “The entire global community will be hard hit by this.” ...