U.S. Experts expect subvariants to cause ‘substantial’ summer cases of COVID-19

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Mon, 2022-06-27 17:35 — mike kraft

Experts expect subvariants to cause ‘substantial’ summer cases of COVID-19 - The Boston Globe The discovery that BA.4 and BA.5 — subvariants of Omicron spreading in the United States — are adept at avoiding antibodies has changed what experts expect to be the course of COVID-19 this summer. BostonGlobe.com

Until last week, Dr. Ali Mokdad expected the United States to have “a very good summer” in terms of COVID-19. Projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, where he works, forecasted falling cases, hospitalizations, and deaths through at least September.

Then, circumstances changed: Researchers discovered that BA.4 and BA.5 — subvariants of Omicron spreading in the United States — are “immune escapes,” adept at avoiding the antibodies the body produces after vaccination or infection to neutralize the virus.

“That has changed our view for what will happen this summer,” Mokdad said. Though he still expects cases to decrease, the decline will be slower and smaller than projected.

Dr. Dan Barouch, director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, said he anticipates the subvariants will spawn a summer of “substantial infections,” but low rates of hospitalization and death.

As of the week ending June 18, BA.4 and BA.5 accounted for about 35 percent of cases in the United States, according to estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — figures that experts say should rise in the weeks to come.

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