Variants v vaccinations: the dueling Covid trends in the US

Variants v vaccinations: what the dueling trends mean for Covid in the US As vaccine distribution picks up speed, dangerous variants are circulating widely. Here’s what we know the Guardian

The United States is once again seeing a rise in Covid-19 cases. The vaccination campaign under the Biden administration has picked up significant speed, but so has circulation of variants of concern.

The B117 variant, discovered in the United Kingdom, is now circulating widely in the United States. It is thought to be more transmissible, and emerging evidence suggests it may be more fatal.

A variant detected in South Africa, B1351, blunted the efficacy of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine there. And a third variant, identified in Brazil and known as P1, could reinfect people who previously were immune to the coronavirus.

All this comes at a time when many Americans assumed the nation would move in the direction of a new “normal”, thanks to incredible achievements in vaccine technology.

So what do these competing ideas mean as the vaccine rollout battles the spread of the variants?

Cases and hospitalizations have increased in the last week, with especially pronounced rises in Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania that experts attribute to the B117 variant. Nationally, cases have increased 10% from the previous seven days.

“We have so much to look forward to,” said the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director, Dr Rochelle Walensky, in a Covid taskforce briefing this week. “But right now I’m scared.” In an off-script moment, Walensky said infections, hospitalizations and deaths, which are a lagging indicator, gave her a sense of “impending doom”.

But the uptick in variants of concern are only part of the picture. People are also showing an increased willingness to abandon masks, stop social distancing and begin to travel.

“I don’t think the sky is falling, but what I am concerned about is the rise in mobility and decline in mask-wearing,” said Professor Ali Mokdad, chief strategy officer for population health and a Covid-19 forecaster at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. “These are the two indicators we need to keep an eye on”.

Models from Mokdad’s university predict a slight bump in cases, followed by an ongoing decline. That decline will be aided by mild weather, the vaccination campaign and outdoor activities. ...