As Virus Cases Surge in Europe, Hospitalizations Lag. But for How Long?

LONDON — In Munich, normally brimming with boisterous crowds for Oktoberfest this month, the authorities just banned gatherings of more than five people. In Marseille, France, all bars and restaurants will be closed next Monday. And in London, where the government spent weeks urging workers to return to the city’s empty skyscrapers, it is now asking them to work from home.

Summer ended in Europe this week with a heavy thud amid ominous signs that a spike in coronavirus cases may send another wave of patients into hospitals. Officials across the continent fear a repeat of the harrowing scenes from last spring, when the virus swamped intensive care units in countries like Italy and Spain. Already in Spain, some hospitals are struggling with an influx of virus patients.

“I’m sorry to say that, as in Spain and France and many other countries, we’ve reached a perilous turning point,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday, as he imposed new restrictions — including shutting pubs and restaurants at 10 p.m. — to prevent Britain’s National Health Service from becoming overwhelmed.

But just how imminent is the peril?

As they weigh actions to curb a second wave of the virus, Mr. Johnson and other European leaders are dealing with a confusing, fast-changing situation, with conflicting evidence on how quickly new cases are translating into hospital admissions — and how severe those cases will end up being. ...