Conakry

A few months ago the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted that up to 1.4 million people in Liberia and Sierra Leone could become infected with Ebola by mid-January. In a recent address to the Senate, CDC director Tom Frieden said that worst-case scenario would not pan out.

That is partly because health care workers in the Ebola hot zone are engaged in a battle to contain the epidemic. It is also because of assumptions about human and viral behavior that are built into the mathematical models used to predict the spread of infectious diseases. Assumptions are inherent in these models. “You take islands of data from different places and build bridges of assumptions that link up all these islands,” says Martin Meltzer, senior health economist at the CDC. Meltzer’s model, which predicted the 1.4 million infections in Liberia and Sierra Leone, worked on the assumption that things would not improve. “Our forecasts are based on the idea that nothing will change,” he says.

Archived Video - Watch the meeting held on Tuesday, December 9, 2014, from 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. (ET).

Speakers: Nancy A. Aossey, President and Chief Executive Officer, International Medical Corps

Laurie Garrett, Senior Fellow for Global Health, Council on Foreign Relations; Author, Ebola: Story of an Outbreak

David Nabarro, Special Envoy on Ebola, United Nations

Presider: Richard E. Besser, Chief Health and Medical Editor, ABC News

Experts recently returned from trips to West Africa with medical teams operating Ebola-treatment units there discuss the situation on the ground and developments in the international response to the crisis.

CLICK HERE - Council on Foreign Relations - Ebola Update: Assessment From Africa

CLICK HERE - YouTube - Council on Foreign Relations - Ebola Update: Assessment From Africa

REPORTS Of RESEARCH ON TWO METHODS OF RAPID TESTING FOR EBOLA

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MEDICAL PRESS                                                                                     Dec. 8, 2014

Rutgers researcher David Alland, working with the California biotechnology company Cepheid, has received a grant of nearly $640,000 from the National Institutes of Health to develop a rapid test to diagnose Ebola as well as other viruses that can cause symptoms similar to Ebola.

Researchers will adapt this cartridge, now used worldwide for tuberculosis screenings, to collect and test samples from potential Ebola patients. Credit: John Emerson

Alland, a professor of medicine and associate dean for clinical research at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School and the principal investigator of the project, says health workers would be able to take the test to small villages and other remote locations where the spread of Ebola has been especially rampant and diagnose patients where they live...

THE ECONOMIST                                                                                                      Dec. 4, 2014

THE first reported case in the Ebola outbreak ravaging west Africa dates back to December 2013, in Guéckédou, a forested area of Guinea near the border with Liberia and Sierra Leone. Travellers took it across the border: by late March, Liberia had reported eight suspected cases and Sierra Leone six. By the end of June 759 people had been infected and 467 people had died from the disease, making this the worst ever Ebola outbreak. The numbers keep climbing. As of November 30th, 17,145 cases and 6,070 deaths had been reported worldwide, the vast majority of them in these same three countries. Many suspect these estimates are badly undercooked.

Read complete posting
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/12/ebola-graphics

Link to an interactive map of the virus's current global reach:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/12/interactive-ebola-map