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The Shifting Ebola Epidemic

NEW YORK TIMES                                                                                         Nov. 16, 2014

EDITORIAL

Recent gains in controlling the Ebola epidemic in West Africa have been encouraging, but they offer no reason for complacency. In Liberia, the hardest-hit country, the rate of new infections has declined in some areas, and several treatment units have been reporting empty beds for more than a month. But in adjacent Sierra Leone the number of new cases has shot upward, while in Guinea, where the epidemic started, the incidence of new cases appears to have stabilized over all, with growth in some districts and declines in others. All told, Ebola has infected more than 14,000 people in West Africa and killed more than 5,000 of them...

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Ebola: Democratic Republic of Congo says its outbreak is over

BBC                                                                                                              Nov. 15, 2014

A three-month Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has ended after claiming at least 49 lives, the country's health minister says.

Health workers are trained in managing Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Felix Kabange said no new cases had been registered since 4 October, though he warned against complacency.

The country's outbreak is unrelated to the one in West Africa which has claimed more than 5,000 lives.

Ebola was first detected in 1976 near the Ebola River in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo.

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30068324

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Ebola Virus Disease Cases Among Health Care Workers Not Working in Ebola Treatment Units — Liberia, June–August, 2014

cdc.gov - Early Release - November 14, 2014

(CLICK HERE - READ COMPLETE REPORT - ADDITIONAL INFORMATION)

Almea Matanock, MD1, M. Allison Arwady, MD1, Patrick Ayscue, DVM1, Joseph D. Forrester,MD1, Bethany Gaddis, MPH2, Jennifer C. Hunter, DrPH1, Benjamin Monroe, MPH3, Satish K. Pillai, MD4, Christie Reed, MD5, Ilana J. Schafer, DVM6, Moses Massaquoi, MD7, Bernice Dahn, MD8, Kevin M. De Cock, MD9 (Author affiliations at end of text)

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No Time for a Learning Curve: Nigeria’s Crucial Success against Ebola


AFRICA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES, Washington D.C.                        Nov. 12, 2014

Summary of lessons learned from Nigeria and Uganda in containing outbreaks of Ebola

“If a country like Nigeria, hampered by serious security problems, can do this – that is, make significant progress towards interrupting polio transmission, eradicate guinea-worm disease and contain Ebola, all at the same time,” said WHO Director-General Margaret Chan, “any country in the world experiencing an imported case can hold onward transmission to just a handful of cases....”

"Numerous African states have identified and refined the best ways of containing the disease."

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http://africacenter.org/2014/11/no-time-for-a-learning-curve-nigerias-crucial-success-against-ebola/?utm_source=November+14++2014+EN&utm_campaign=11%2F14%2F2014&utm_medium=email

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Battling Ebola: The African responses that 'will win this war'

People walk past a billboard with a message about Ebola in Freetown, the capital of Sierra Leone, on November 7. Public awareness campaigns are proving vital in the fight against the virus.

Description of African efforts to improve communications to counter the spread of Ebola

CCN                                                                                                                                Nov. 17, 2014

By Alex Court (CNN)-- "When the Ebola outbreak started, it was very terrifying for everybody," recalls Michael Chu'no Ike from Nsukka in Nigeria's Enugu State. "People were afraid it could be transmitted by air and started believing all sorts of rumors about how to boost their immunity."

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The economics of Ebola

HOMELAND SECURITY NEWS WIRE                                                                                             Nov. 13, 2014
By Catherine de Fontenay
Economists are being called upon to estimate the costs of the Ebola epidemic to West Africa and elsewhere. Economists, however, should also play a part in estimating the likelihood of the disease spreading. Economics is the study of incentives, and many biological models of the spread of the disease may be underestimating the impact of individual incentives.

 Based on cost-benefit analysis, the potential costs of Ebola spreading are extremely high and the risks may be much higher than they are currently portrayed. Voters and donors should support greater efforts to end Ebola in West Africa. As International Monetary Fund director Christine Lagarde says, “real action” is needed to counter the outbreak. Without such action Ebola places the global economy at risk.

...If Ebola spreads throughout West Africa, the cost could rise to US$32.6 billion by the end of 2015.
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http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20141113-the-economics-of-ebola

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Are we asking the wrong questions about Ebola?

BBC NEWS MAGAZINE                                            NOV. 11, 2014

By Ben Carter

The Ebola virus has killed about 5,000 people since March - but one scientist who is studying the statistics says this is not the best figure to consider if we really want to understand the current state of the outbreak and how to beat it.

 

 

A total of 4,960 people have died from Ebola this year according to statistics released by the World Health Organisation on 4 November. More than half of those cases - 2,766 - were in Liberia.

But this cumulative figure, which is widely reported, can only go one way - up. It gives no meaningful insight into how the outbreak has developed says Hans Rosling, professor of global health at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden....

Read full story.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30011521

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Health Officials Reassess Strategy to Combat Ebola in Liberia

NEW YORK TIMES                                                         Nov. 13, 2014

By and

WASHINGTON — As the rate of new Ebola infections in Liberia has slowed, American and Liberian officials are debating whether to build all 17 planned Ebola treatment centers in the country or to shift money from the Obama administration that was planned for the centers into other programs to combat future outbreaks.

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Ebola: Online briefing now available to the public

 

 

DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS                                                                              Nov. 12, 2014

The international medical organisation Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) or Doctors Without Borders has posted an online briefing on Ebola for aid workers involved in the battle against the haemorrhagic fever. This briefing package is now available to anyone wishing to gain a basic understanding of the virus and how it can be contained.

http://www.msf.org/article/ebola-online-briefing-now-available-public

View the briefing at
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U.S. Ebola experience changes thinking about disease

USA TODAY                                   Nov. 11, 2014
By Liz Sazbo
The successful treatment of Westerners with Ebola in the USA and Europe is changing the way doctors think about the disease.

The conventional wisdom about Ebola has been that it's usually fatal, with a mortality rate of up to 90%. That was based largely on experience with Ebola in developing countries in Africa, where many hospitals have no running water and soap, let alone personal protective equipment for the medical staff.

All eight American patients with Ebola treated in the USA have survived. So have most Europeans evacuated to their home countries for care....

With early and aggressive care, "Ebola can be an eminently treatable disease," says Amesh Adalja, senior associate at the Center for Health Security at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.

In some ways, Ebola is a different disease in the USA and Europe than it is in Africa, just as cancer is a different disease here than in developing countries, says Jeffrey Duchin, a professor at the University of Washington-Seattle and spokesman for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Both conditions are fearsome and dangerous, but experience shows that cancer and Ebola can often be survived if caught early and treated aggressively.

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What Employers Are Doing To Counter Ebola

FORBES MAGAZINE                              NOV. 11, 2014
By Tevi Troy, President, American Health Policy Institute

Ebola has killed over 5,000 people, roiled U.S. hospitals, and shaken the faith of Americans in the government’s ability to respond. At the same time, and below the radar, U.S. companies are responding to Ebola with a variety of steps to protect themselves, their employees, and their operations.

The most important element of communicating the threat of the Ebola outbreak for both the government and corporate leaders is to provide factual information while also preventing panic and fear. There have been 5,000 false alarm cases of Ebola as people flock to U.S. emergency rooms out of fear that their common cold or seasonal flu symptoms are early manifestations of the Ebola virus. This hysteria not only has potential mental and physical health implications, but also economic implications. Fear may incentivize some people to change their behavior, whether through cancelling flights and vacation plans or visiting the doctor and stocking up on medications. Furthermore, treating suspected Ebola patients, even if they don’t pan out, is expensive and labor intensive for hospitals.

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Is The Response in Liberia Succeeding? Positive indications

NEW ENGLAND COMPLEX SYSTEMS INSTITUTE                                                                        Oct. 27, 2014
ABSTRACT
By Kia Hall and Yaneer Bar-Yam
The number of cases of Ebola in West Africa has been growing exponentially, and projections assume that this dynamic will continue. However, recent case reports from Liberia indicate a change. The number of new confirmed cases reported by WHO has actually diminished for five weeks in a row.
The WHO report suggests that this may be due to underreporting under conditions of high levels of stress of the number of cases taking place.

Here we report that there appears to be a sound reason for the decreasing number of cases—a change in response strategy that is working. Understanding this dynamic is of critical importance for addressing the outbreak in Sierra Leone and Guinea. In particular the number of cases in Sierra Leone continues to grow exponentially.

Discussions with a WHO response coordinator in Liberia indicates that a change in strategy from individual reporting and contact tracing to community based screening for early detection and population wide behavior change happened in mid September.

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7 Key Insights in Using ICT to Improve Ebola Response

Image: A billboard that reads 'Stop the Ebola Virus'

Image: A billboard that reads 'Stop the Ebola Virus'

ictworks.org - October 31st 2014 - Wayan Vota

Yesterday, we had the 85th Technology Salon in Washington, DC, this one focused on How Can ICTs Improve Our Ebola Response? Be sure to sign up to get invited to our next event.

In the lively morning-long discussion with 35 key thought leaders and decision makers from across the technology and development sectors, we came to several interesting conclusions.

(VIEW COMPLETE ARTICLE)

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Exclusive: U.S. Ebola researchers plead for access to virus samples

A transmission electron micrograph shows Ebola virus particles in this undated handout image released by the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) in Fredrick, Maryland. Credit: Reuters/USAMRIID/Handout

Image: A transmission electron micrograph shows Ebola virus particles in this undated handout image released by the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) in Fredrick, Maryland. Credit: Reuters/USAMRIID/Handout

reuters.com - November 5th 2014 - Julie Steenhuysen

Scientists across the United States say they cannot obtain samples of Ebola, complicating efforts to understand how the virus is mutating and develop new drugs, vaccines and diagnostics.

The problems reflect growing caution by regulators and transport companies about handling Ebola as well as the limited resources of West African countries which are struggling to help thousands of infected citizens.

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Morocco Insists on Delaying African Cup Over Ebola

ASSOCIATED PRESS                                   Nov. 8, 2014

REBAT-- Morocco is sticking to its demand to postpone the African Cup of Nations football tournament due to the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, despite pressure from the Confederation of African Football.

A statement from the Ministry of Sports late Saturday said that because of the "spread of the deadly Ebola pandemic," Morocco was maintaining its call for delaying the tournament it is scheduled to host from Jan. 17-Feb. 8, to the following year.

The Confederation of African Football has repeatedly rejected calls to postpone the tournament and last Monday gave Morocco five days to agree to hold the tournament as scheduled or they would reassign it.

The body will meet again on Tuesday to make a final decision on whether the tournament will be delayed or assigned to another country.

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http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/morocco-insists-delaying-african-cup-ebola-26781383

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