Pandemics

CDC RELEASES ESTIMATES OF EBOLA CASES, COULD REACH 1.4 MILLION

Wed, 2014-09-24 04:00 — mike kraft

New York Times

CDC releases report on worst and best case estimates for Ebola cases.

Estimates cover Liberia and Sierra Leone, based on computer modeling. Guinea not included because data "cannot be reliably modeled."

Best case-model, which assures the dead are buried safely and 70 per cent of the patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission, suggest the epidemic could almost be ended by Jan. 20.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?emc=edit_na_20140923&nlid=12644555&_r=0

LINK TO THE CDC REPORT TEXT

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/ebola-cases-could-skyrocket-by-2015-says-cdc/1337/

CDC RELEASES ESTIMATES OF EBOLA CASES, COULD REACH 1.4 MILLION
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w

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London Group Plans to Start First Clinical Tests of Ebola Drugs in West Africa

Tue, 2014-09-23 21:49 — mike kraft

Washington Post

by Abby Ohlheiser September 23 at 11:45 AM

London based scientists, working with international aid groups, are planning to start the first clinical trials in West Africa for drugs to treat Eboa. The trials could begin in a matter of months.

Wellcome Trust's $5 million initiative will include drugs from Mapp Biopharmaceutical, Sarepta and Tekmira, according to Reuters. Mapp makes zMapp, the experimental cocktail administered to two Americans who contracted the disease in Liberia. Tekmira recently gained the approval of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to use its TKM-Ebola treatment on confirmed or suspected cases of the disease.

Both drugs are still in the experimental phase; researchers have not yet determined the safety or effectiveness of the treatments.

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EBOLA MAY BECOME ENDEMIC TO WEST AFRICA WITH 71 PER CENT INFECTION RATE--WHO STUDY

Tue, 2014-09-23 18:47 — mike kraft

LOS ANGLES TIMES September 22, 10:25 PM

by Monte Morin

In a grim assessment of the Ebola epidemic, researchers say the deadly virus threatens to become endemic to West Africa instead of eventually disappearing from humans.

"The current epidemiologic outlook is bleak," wrote a panel of more than 60 World Health Organization experts in a study published Tuesday by the New England Journal of Medicine.

"We must therefore face the possibility that Ebola virus disease will become endemic among the human population of West Africa, a prospect that has never previously been contemplated."

In the absence of new control measures, the authors estimated that the total case load would exceed 20,000 by Nov 2.

Link to full story

http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-ebola-may-be-endemic-in-people-20140922-story.html

Link to New England Journal of Medicine study

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100?query=featured_ebola

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